THINGS TO KEEP YOU UP AT NIGHT

by GENE MASCOLI

Gene's Columns Are Archived HERE

THINGS TO KEEP YOU UP AT NIGHT

Hot and Growing Hotter
Global Warming On The Rise

I'm weary of the media approach to science. Create some riveting headlines, stir up some emotion, back it up with a fact or two, sell some papers. For example, I've been reading a lot about ‘global warming’ in the last few weeks. It's been in the news almost daily. There is the melting ice sheet around Greenland, the rise in allergies worldwide due to higher levels of CO2, droughts, raging wildfires and now - a lake in the middle of the North Pole. Sounds really scary. If you're not scared, you should be based on the news. But of course that's the key - based on the news. What are the facts?

Let's make a few assumptions. The first one is that the Earth's climate is ever-changing. It never stays the same. The geological record bears this out. The rock history bears this out. It's been a tumultuous couple of hundred million years. Primitive earth grew by accretion, the pulling and collision of tiny bits of matter together into a cohesive ball of molten stuff. Primitive Earth had nothing like the atmosphere we know of. There was only heat and noxious gases. Gradually what? Perhaps snowball Earth. Some scientists think so. Recently I finished reading the book Rare Earth, by Peter D. Ward and Donald Brownlee. Compelling information on our ancient planet. Much information also about our planet's thermostat, CO2 which regulates heat intake and escape.

Rapid Thinning of Greenland's Coastal Ice*

But always these changes were gradual. Wrong! Sometimes change was as rapid as the KT Event 65 million years ago that many scientists believe caused the extinction of dinosaurs and 70% of all life on Earth, one of many possible events that caused mass extinctions. Another early mass extinction could have been the result of a nearby sun, (within 30 light-years) going supernova. One minute munching on some plant material, the next charred skeleton. That's about as rapid as it gets. But life still seems to chug along, or at least recover.

That doesn't mean it speaks well for any species that has to adapt to rapid change. Rapid change is hard on a species. If you are too delicate, poof, you're gone. Not too fussy, well then you ride with the tide for awhile.

Most change on Earth is gradual from the standpoint of mankind. Perhaps the Ice Age was a quick thing to Gaia, but to us, a long, long period of time. Even delicate animals can adapt. That's why we have life in many different environments and climates. But rapid change is not a good thing.

Which leads me to ‘global warming’. The world is getting hot and growing hotter. Scientists point to factors that indicate rapid change. Others point to the gradual changes that Earth seems to dole out from time to time, and that what we are seeing are normal fluctuations in the Earth's climate. So the primary question is - is the climate getting warmer or not? The first step is measure to see if the planet is getting warmer.

Widening Ozone Hole - Antarctic*

How do we measure ‘global warming’? Either we compare 'the now' to what has gone before, or compare 'the now' to what we see as the trend outward. The way we measure what has gone before varies widely. We weren't there before, so we can look at (1) the geological record, in rock, in ice, (2) the written record, (of only a few millennia) or (3) make guesses. Any of these are only as accurate as the method used to gather the information. If the gatherer has a particular bias, the record is skewed. Reminds me of quantum physics. Try to measure the location of something or the velocity of something, but you can't measure both or know both with exact precision. Why? Because by the very act of measuring the event, we alter the event. That's what we do when we go in with a biased opinion to measure something. I don't believe we ever really have an unbiased opinion. We're always looking for something to refute or support our view of the world. But let's assume we did the best we can, that we don't work for an organization that pays us to come up with a certain outcome, that we don't sell newspapers and that we have some good data.

What does the data show? Is the Earth getting warmer or not? Is it a rapid change or a gradual one? Let's assume it IS NOT getting warmer or we can't tell. This doesn't mean we should discount the potential for our activities to start a big long heatwave. It is always wise to be prudent and we are dumping a few million tons of debris into the air. But at what cost? The rainforest is disappearing, we know this to be true, although I don't actually know how many acres a month or a day because everyone seems to use different numbers.

The more important question to ask is - why are the rainforests disappearing? Is it consumer societies preying on the 3rd world, or is it poor, indigenous peoples trying to feed their babies? Mmm, very subjective. I don't know, I guess I should come back to this later. Regardless, I vote to make sure we are NOT the cause of future global warming.

Let's assume that the evidence coming in tells us that the Earth IS getting warmer. Whether it is our fault, or not, or even partially our fault, we have to find a way to stop it from getting warmer. If it is a gradual warming trend and not the impending doom and gloom we keep hearing about, then we have some time to sort things out, not do anything rash, not lose our cool, and fix the problem.

But if it is not our fault can we really do anything about it? After all it is a big planet. What order of magnitude would it take for us to purposefully set out to change the balance of the atmosphere? And of course the big fear is that we really wouldn't know the consequences of our actions. Remember my previous column on the Killer Algae? A big ecological problem could have its root cause in someone cleaning out their aquarium. Bottom line is that we know the Earth's climate has changed many times in the past. If it changes too much, too fast that is bad for people. Should we act or sit and watch? It makes sense to try and do something about it, carefully, thoughtfully.

If it is our fault, is it too late to do anything about it? The easy answer is no, it is not too late. We can find out what we've been doing and stop it. But we live in a world where many different peoples and societies have many different goals, plans and beliefs. We think it is important to fix the ozone hole, while many people in many places are worried about filling their bellies. The ozone hole will have to wait. The competing interests of many must give way to an overall plan of governments, cooperation on the highest level. Wow, that's a big order. Who's going to give up their cars, their power plants, their air conditioning?

Atlanta, Georgia U.S. -- Day Heat*

That's the human side of the debate, the one up to politicians and reporters and activists. The bigger issue for scientists is how to fix it if it truly is broken. To take a look at how daunting and complicated it might be, take a look at the synthetic gas, trifluoromethyl sulfur pentafluoride. TSP has been showing up in increasing amounts in the atmosphere, (albeit trace amounts) since the early 1950s. It is likely that it is due solely to human activity and it is reported to be 18,000 times more efficient at retaining heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide! No one can say for sure where it is coming from; a byproduct we don't understand, a chemical reaction we've missed, and it may take over a century to break down naturally. Those are the kind of issues that keep me up at night. Sorry it's not a simple answer. Real life, as opposed to politics, journalism and activism, rarely ever is simple. If you want to research the subject yourself rather than relying on headlines, and form your own opinion, here are some sites to start you off:

- EPA's Global Warming Site
The EPA Global Warming Site focuses on the science and impacts of global warming or climate change, and on actions by governments, corporations, and individuals that help address global warming issues. The site also features climate change related news, events, publications, reports, presentations, and links to other sites.

- The Global Warming International Center
The Global Warming International Center (GWIC) is the international body disseminating information on global warming science and policy.

- Campaign To Stop Global Warming

- American Petroleum Institute

*Images courtesy of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center

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